Russia responds, advanced missle system for Iran

The Daily Telegraph reports that US intelligence officials are worried Russia may respond to the recent US-Poland missile agreement by arming Iran with an advanced missile defense system of its own.

The S-300 anti-aircraft system can track 100 targets simultaneously and fire on aircraft 75 miles away. US and Israeli officials fear that such a system would be a "game changer" making any conceived attack on Iran much more dangerous and difficult to execute. These same officials feel that Russia may use the threat of providing Iran such a system "to create a foreign policy showdown that would test the mettle of a new US president."

This not only hampers diplomatic efforts with Russia, it undermines any prospect for compromise between Iran and the West over the nuclear issue and Iraq. The the other obvious problem is that the very threat of such a system may provoke an Israeli attack. Pentagon adviser, Dan Goure, suggest "If Tehran obtained the S-300, it . . . could be a catalyst for Israeli air attacks before it's operational."

Iran originally took a moderate approach to the Russian-Georgian conflict, calling for restraint and an end to hostilities. However, yesterday Iran's Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, argued that Georgia was at fault for miscalculating Russia's response. Earlier in the week, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suggested that the conflict was a result of foreign interference in the region.

The Iranian issue has become a linchpin in Russia's political and diplomatic strategy. While Russia had already been a strong backer of Iran's nuclear program, Iran has now become a symbolic cause for Russia's foreign policy in its cosmic showdown with NATO and the US.

[Image: Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei]

Will Karrubi run?

It appears that Khatami's perennial reformist rival, Mehdi Karrubi, may run for president in 2009.

The central council of the National Trust (Etemad Melli) party nominated their leader, Mehdi Karrubi, to be the party's candidate in the next election. Although Karrubi has not formally accepted his party's nomination nor stated his intent to run, it seems likely that he'll give the presidential campaign another shot. In a March interview with Newsweek, he pledged that his party would field a candidate for president:

We will have a member of our party as the candidate. It wouldn't necessarily be me, but someone who is a member of our party. . . Someone from our party will have a good chance. Even though last time I entered the race without a party I was the No. 1 candidate in many provinces. So next year our supporters will still vote for us and will be even more organized.

Karrubi was a candidate in the 2005 elections, but points to widespread voter-fraud and his lack of party-backing for his loss. (Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad probably had a little to do with it, too.) After his loss, Karrubi started the National Trust party as a way to organize his supporters. Karrubi presents himself as a more pragmatic politician than the "radical" (his words) Khatami.

As I suggested earlier this week, the question of Karrubi's candidacy seems to be at the heart of Khatami's current indecision. If Karrubi runs, and it appears that he will, then it will be difficult for Khatami to run as well. Beyond splitting the reformist vote, Khatami will lack the popular mandate that he expects and feels he deserves as the most senior reformist leader. Such a situation would be like Bill Clinton running against Al Gore, the former would have more to lose than the latter.

[Image: Former Majles speaker, and current reformist leader, Mehdi Karrubi]

Khatami testing the waters

It seems that former president, Mohammad Khatami, has not completely ruled out running for another term. Last week, a spokesman for the reformist leader told reporters that Khatami had "no plans" to run in 2009. This week, a different associate claimed Khatami is actually open to the idea. Khatami will run if the "people want" him to run; but so far, he's not feeling it.

Is Khatami not receiving enough support from reformists this time around? Perhaps. However, I read these statements as gestures to Khatami's colleagues. Khatami only seems interested in running if he receives the endorsements and support of other key reformist leaders, particularly Mehdi Karrubi. Karrubi hasn't publicly called for Khatami to run, but has hinted at running himself. Khatami is likely pushing to be a unity candidate for his faction and is thus not interested in competing against other reformists in 2009.

Of course, there is also a question of whether or not Khatami would even be cleared by the Guardian Council to be able to make a run in 2009. This alone may keep Khatami from committing to another election.

Iranian Reformist Cleric Says Former President Khatami May Stand in Elections
Iranian Labor News Agency
Friday, August 22, 2008 T11:40:20Z

Tehran, 22 August: Ayatollah Seyyed Jallaleddin Taheri-Esfahani has said: In my meeting with Mr Khatami (former president), I asked him whether he would run in the next presidential elections. Khatami said: If people want me to, I have no problem with running for president. However, I have not yet felt that the people want me to come forward.

According to ILNA, Taheri-Esfahani, the former leader's representative to Esfahan, made the remarks in a meeting with the students and youth of the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF) from across the country. He said: I hope that the people's and my request from Khatami to stand in the election will be effective.

The former Esfahan Friday prayer leader referred to the 10th presidential elections, saying: I urge Khatami to come forward and we will all vote for him. Referring to the current system of running the country, he said: We can all see that the Khatami administration was very different from the current government and everyone knows that the situation of the country was better during the presidency of Khatami. Khatami avoided certain practices during his term and we can see those practices these days.

He added: I, like you young people, will vote for Khatami. I simply hope that our requests from Khatami will be effective enough and that he will stand in the elections.
Ayatollah Taheri concluded: I urge Mr Khatami to come back and we will all vote for him.

A movement divided

OSC has translated an interesting interview with top Iranian politician Mohsen Rezai. In the interview (included below)—published by a hardline Persian daily—Rezai talks about the current state of the hardline (“principlist”) faction and proposes changes for the upcoming presidential elections.

Rezai isolates the current factionalism taking place among hardliners, suggesting that these divisions will hurt the camp in the next election. He argues:

"The most dangerous factor threatening the principle-ist movement is egotism and a turning away from working together; this factor can bring great harm to the movement, especially at election time. Self-centrism at election time will develop into despotism."

Rezai also stresses a pragmatic approach to religious politics, suggesting: “real and pure Islam is based on two bedrocks: the first is being divine and working for God; while the second is acting logically and rationally."

Rezai’s comments come at an important juncture for hardliners. As the Ahmadinejad regime limps toward the 2009 elections, other hardline leaders are jockeying for influence within the movement. Chief among these is Majles (parliament) speaker, Ali Larijani, who has been an outspoken critic of both Ahmadinejad and the United States. Although Larijani beat out his rival, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, for his current post, the latter is still seen as a strong alternative to Ahmadinejad in 2009. Tehran’s mayor Mohammad Qalibaf, who is allied with Rezai, also has a strong base of support.

This leaves four main contenders for the 2009 presidential elections (Ahmadinejad, Larijani, Haddad-Adel, and Qalibaf), each with their own clique of supporters. With no real political opposition (the reformists are also divided and chances are their lead candidates will be blocked from running), the hardliners are experiencing an identity crisis. Rezai has recognized this, which is why he has warned against the “undermining” effects of factionalism and has proposed pragmatism as a solution.

"Mohsen Reza'i: 'Strategy of Principle-Ists Must Be Collective Move'"
Hezbollah
Wednesday, August 20, 2008 T18:16:36Z
Journal Code: 9427 Language: ENGLISH Record Type: FULLTEXT
Document Type: OSC Translated Text
Word Count: 755

The secretary of the Expediency Council has confirmed: "The criterion of choice in the principle-ist movement should change from paternalism, in which a group of elders decides for everybody from above and outside, to a brotherly and collective approach, where everyone considers himself a brother of, and equal to, others."

Mohsen Reza'i, who was speaking to Fars News about the strategy of the principle-ists in the next presidential election, added: "The best strategy for principle-ists is a collective move. Individual moves in elections, even if they end in success, lead to self-centrism and egotism after the election, and society would not benefit properly from the principle-ist trend." Explaining that the strategy of the principle-ists was a collective approach previously, but it had many shortcomings, he added: "The Coordination Council in the seventh Majles election was relatively successful, but it collapsed at the ninth presidential election. The five-plus-one group, or the United Front of Principle-Ists that replaced it, set the red lines inside the United Front of Principle-ists. Although this managed to obtain some success in the eighth Majles election, it contained many flaws and failed to give the front real and comprehensive unity." According to Reza'i, eventually the principle-ist faction must reach a collective model, which is both viable and also acceptable by all the spectra of the front; moreover, all groups should be present in it.

The political activist spoke about the mechanism that can lead to success for the United Front of Principle-Ists in the forthcoming election and stated: "The criterion of the principle-ists' decision making and choosing a candidate must be accepted by all principle-ists; this means that the egotism and paternalist approach must change into a fraternal and collective democratic move." He also proposed that all who consider themselves principle-ists should be invited to take part in this decision-making. "I mean that a few figures should not sit down and leave out the other principle-ists. For a small group to decide for all is paternalism, and I understand this as centralism." He continued to assert: "The partisan and factional feature must not prevail over pursuing the interests of the regime. Rather, sustaining the regime is the most important principle of the United Front of Principle-Ists, and has preference over everything else. Even if sometimes we believe that, through a certain action, the pillars of the regime become stronger, even here we should not give priority to factional and partisan features and we must maintain preference for the entirety of the regime. Sometimes, circumstances might show that the principle-ists need to sacrifice their own interests for preserving and consolidating the regime, because this is identical with logic of principle-ism."

Reza'i emphasized consolidating collective unity, consultation, and reaching common a conclusion. He affirmed: "The most dangerous factor threatening the principle-ist movement is egotism and a turning away from working together; this factor can bring great harm to the movement, especially at election time. Self-centrism at election time will develop into despotism." Reza'i added that restricting the principle-ist movement is among the most serious dangers: "The movement must be far more comprehensive than what it puts on display, and it must not limit its range."

Reza'i continued: "The third question is divine motivation, which should not be weakened in political activities. For the real and pure Islam is based on two bedrocks: the first is being divine and working for God; while the second is acting logically and rationally." He added that, if a group is godly but does not act rationally, it will deliver serious damage to society, and in many instances we ought to desist from defending ourselves. He emphasized the necessity of cooperation and interaction in the political environment of Iran, referring to the strong rebuffs and insults that have taken place in the principle-ist front recently. Those who are insulted must be patient for the sake of the people's interest and the regime's integrity; those who insult others must realize that, without piety and decency, nobody will succeed, and they will lose even in posterity. The great ones and sages must advise both parties.

In conclusion, he expressed dismay about the future of the principle-ist movement and reiterated: "A false and mistaken arrogance has appeared in the principle-ist movement, which has made its parts overlook the dangers looming on their path. They fail to appreciate each other and be grateful; instead of strengthening they undermine each other. Recently the new plague of 'in-group elimination' attitude has penetrated among their different groups, which is similar to the behavior of the Monafeqin (hypocrites) and devious and corrupt groups, which must be prevented at all costs. Fair and constructive criticis must replace destructive criticism."

[Image: Expediency Council secretary, and former IRGC commander, Mohsen Rezai]

Supreme Leader criticizes Ahmadinejad

In a recent speech, Iran’s Supreme Leader lauded the Shiite religion but warned against superstitious beliefs that misrepresented the tradition.

Speaking on the anniversary of the Imam Mahdi’s birth, Ayatollah Khamenei took particular aim at those individuals who claim to have a personal connection to Shiism’s “Hidden Imam.” Though he didn’t name names, Khamenei’s comments were clearly aimed Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—an outspoken advocate of the Mahdi’s imminent return.

The 12^th Imam (aka Imam Mahdi or the Hidden Imam) is a messianic figure in Shiism who Shiites believe will return to the world and lead an apocalyptical campaign against the forces of oppression. This victorious campaign will lead to world peace, the equality of humankind, and the elimination of disease and poverty. Although there have been past claimants to the Imam Mahdi throughout history (such as the founder of the Safavid Dynasty, Shah Ismail, and the founders of the Babi and Baha'i religions), the vast majority of Shiites still await his return.

A small segment of Iranians, including Ahmadinejad, are particularly devoted to this prophecy. Ahmadinejad has frequently made claims about the Hidden Imam’s return and at one point claimed to be in contact with the messianic figure. Such public claims, like Ahmadinejad’s now unfulfilled prophecy that the Imam would return in two years, have provoked criticism from all political sectors in Iran. Some have accused the President of cynically evoking messianic expectations for political purposes, while others have found such comments unseemly for a nation’s leader.

Khamenei has criticized Ahmadinejad on this point before and this latest speech shows it remains an area of concern. The Supreme Leader said that such claims were “shameful” and promised a new campaign to promote Shia orthodoxy both inside and outside of Iran to combat these “embellishments” and “superstitions.”

For all of his pointed criticism, Khamenei remains supportive of the President. As other hardliners jockey for influence in the run up to the 2009 elections it will be interesting to see where Khamenei’s support will go. Continued criticism like this, however, does not bode well for Ahmadinejad.

[Image: IRGC mural of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]

New IRGC special ops school, and we can't forget Guards Day

Mehr news reports in Persian that the IRGC navy is converting one of its training centers into a school devoted to special operations.

Commodore Morteza Saffari, commander of IRGC naval forces, announced that the Seyyed ol-Shohada (Prince of Martyrs) facility will develop into a university that will focus on expanding and improving naval tactics in the face of current threats. The new school is located in Bandar-e Anzali on the southwestern shores of the Caspian Sea.

Its location may sound surprising, given the rhetoric surrounding the Persian Gulf, but isolation is the point. The IRGC has put new emphasis on its naval capacities and weaponry, recognizing the US’ relative vulnerability in this area. This new specialist training facility is likely to become an important location for IRGC naval forces to train strategies and test weaponry ultimately designed for combat in the Gulf.

Also, in case you all missed it, Iran just celebrated “Guards Day.” This annual event was begun by Khomeini in 1979, who designated the birthday of the Imam Husayn—Shiite Islam’s most revered hero—as a day of appreciation for the Revolutionary Guards.

[Image: old-timey photo of Bandar-e Anzali, site of a new IRGC naval college]

It's a no-go for Khatami in 2009

The spokesman for the Baran (rain) Foundation—an organization for international dialogue run by former President Mohammad Khatami—stated that the reformist leader has no plans to run in 2009.

Iranian columnists have long speculated that Khatami would be the reformists’ lead candidate going into the 2009 elections. Although the reformist faction is split between several parties, Khatami remains a popular figure. If he is indeed out of the running (things can change, this is politics after all), then the field will be wide open for the reformists. Two possible names are Reza Khatami (the former president’s brother) and Mehdi Karrubi—a reformist leader and sometimes political rival to the Khatami clique. Both are important reformist leaders but neither enjoys the national profile of the former President.

With Khatami out, and the reformists still picking up the pieces of their fractured movement, it’s not likely that they’ll have much of a presence in the 2009 election. Even if they were to rally behind a particular candidate, that candidate would most probably be blocked from running by the hardline Guardian Council.

[Image: Former President, Mohammad Khatami]

Jondallah overtures shortlived, 3 IRGC soldiers captured

As I suspected, Jondallah's overtures to the Islamic Republic were rebuffed. And the result? Jondallah executes two more hostages and kidnaps three additional IRGC officers.

AFP reports:

Iran rebels execute two policemen, capture three Guards: report

DUBAI (AFP) — An Iranian Sunni rebel group claimed on Monday to have kidnapped three Revolutionary Guard officers and executed two policemen captured in June after talks with Tehran failed to secure their release, Al-Arabiya news channel reported.

The Jundullah (Soldiers of God) group captured the three officers on Sunday, the Dubai-based television said, quoting a spokesman for the group without specifying where they were seized.

The unnamed spokesman was also quoted as saying that "two border policemen have been executed out of eight that had remained captive" since they were captured on June 12.

According to the group, the border policemen were part of a group of 16 seized at a checkpoint in the town of Saravan, in restive Baluch-populated southeastern Iran, before being taken across the border into Pakistan.

Jundullah vowed to execute two guards each week unless Tehran agreed to their demands for the release of 200 of the group's detained fighters.

The group has been blamed for a string of attacks and kidnappings in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province, which is home to a large ethnic Baluch community and straddles the border with Pakistan.

Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi said last week the group was ready for talks with the Tehran government, offering to law down its arms if predominantly Shiite Iran's Sunni minority was granted full political rights.

Jondallah willing to disarm, join political process

Fars news reports that Abduk-Malek Rigi, the leader of the People’s Resistance Movement of Iran (aka Jondallah), is willing to negotiate a settlement with the Islamic Republic.

Rigi, in an interview with al-Arabiya, said that his group is willing to negotiate with Iran in the presence of a third party. Rigi announced that if Iran secured full political rights for the Baluchi minority, the group would disarm and enter the political process.

Jondallah kidnapped 16 Iranian border guards earlier this summer and has already claimed to have executed four of them. The group has previously called for dialogue with Iran, however the Islamic Republic has not publically responded to Jondallah’s threats. Instead, Iran has severely cracked down on suspected Baluchi activists and smugglers in the country’s southeastern province—something Jondallah as decried as systematic political oppression. Perhaps fearing the public fallout of continued executions, it appears Rigi is now taking his demands into the realm of public diplomacy.

It is not clear if these new overtures will amount to anything new in the ongoing conflict between Jondallah and the Islamic Republic. What Rigi wants above all else at this point is the release of his brother, Abdul-Hamid Rigi, who was extradited to Iran from Pakistan several weeks ago. Jondallah’s strategy of hostage-taking and publicized executions has not helped this case one bit, and has only resulted in a hardening of Iran’s position and a surge of additional arrests. Iran is not likely to release Abdul-Hamid or the other 200 Baluchi prisoners Jondallah demands, and Rigi’s recent announcement (as evinced in cited Fars story) is now being framed as a victory for the Islamic Republic.

[Image: Jondallah leader, Abdul-Malek Rigi]

Ayatollah Khatami: Hardliners Unite! (sort of)

In a recent interview,* the hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (not to be confused with Iran's former reformist President, Mohammad Khatami) warned that division among the principlists is undermining the movement.

Khatami, the current Friday prayer leader of Tehran, stressed that principlism (which is what hardliners call their movement) is above else a culture that no individual can claim to speak on behalf. Although he doesn't name names, Khatami is referring to the growing divide among hardline leaders in the build up to the 2009 presidential elections. Ali Larijani, who many believe will be the lead hardline challenger to Ahmadinejad in 2009, has been the most vocal in his criticism of the President.

Other critics include former IRGC commander, Mohsen Rezai, and his ally, Tehran mayor and possible 2009 candidate, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

Ayatollah Khatami argued that the current infighting is a plot by Iran's enemies to divide the camp before the 2009 elections, and that politicians should think about God before they make any dissenting remarks. The current state of the principlist movement is indeed divided, but it is not clear how this is going to play out in the upcoming elections.

The reformists are also divided and most speculation points to them selecting former president Mohammad Khatami as their lead candidate. However, M. Khatami still carries the baggage of having failed in his attempts to enact any significant change in Iran's political system during two terms in office. Even if he is allowed to run in 2009 (many are speculating that he will be blocked), it's difficult to imagine that M. Khatami could inspire much enthusiasm.


*This interview was published in the IRGC-linked Javan daily, OSC has translated some excerpts:

Iran cleric: Enemies are trying to impair the next presidential elections
Javan
Wednesday, August 6, 2008 T18:05:38Z

Tehran, 29 July: Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami stressed that principle-ism is a culture. He said: No one can claim himself to be the only spokesperson to be principle-ists. Furthermore, members of principle-ist parties have to talk on behalf of their party and not the principle-ist movement.

In an interview with the Fars (news agency), Tehran's temporary Friday prayer leader stressed: Principle-ists have to consider that God is watching them and do not make dissenting remarks in their speeches. Even if such speeches cause the principle-ists parties' names mentioned more frequently they have to be fair when delivering a speech.

He said that muddying the waters in the lead-up to the elections is a plot by the enemy and by the politically duped. He added: They have to be careful not to enter the political scene at this time and they should expect a healthy, logical and lawful atmosphere for the next presidential elections.

[Image: hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami]

Question of US relations divides hardliners

The Persian daily Etemaad published an interesting article over the weekend discussing the role relations with the US is playing in pre-election politics.

Much to the surprise of some, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is beginning to be portrayed as the "pro-American" candidate. Over the last few weeks Iranian journalists have been discussing the rumors that the US may open an official special interests section in Iran--short of an embassy, but it's being interpreted as a step in that direction. This, combined with the US' involvement in the latest round of nuclear talks, has Iranian politicians smelling a brewing rapprochement and some hardliners are blaming Ahmadinejad.

Leading the charge against Ahmadinejad is his erstwhile cabinet member and lead nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani. Larijani, who recently became the Majles (parliament) speaker, is using his new role and increased public profile to criticize Ahmadinejad for getting too close to the US and harming relations with Europe in the process. The Etemaad article mentions that Larijani is advocating for stronger ties with Europe while maintaining the status-quo distance from the US. In this way, Larijani is hoping to rally the traditionally anti-American hardliners around himself by tarnishing Ahmadinejad's staunchly antagonistic record.

Conversely, Etemaad suggests that Ahmadinejad is warming to the idea of US relations in an effort to soften his image for next year's election. While Larijani has proved his influence in parliament and has become an increasingly outspoken critic of the current administration, he lacks Ahmadinejad's extensive ties to the conservative rural classes and war veterans. If Mohammad Qalibaf decides to run in 2009, he could also have a strong showing among war veterans and would be the conservatives' best bet in Tehran.

For Larijani to break away from the pack, he'll have to find a way to become the favored candidate of the hardliners without completely alienating Iran's more moderate middle classes. It seems that he is resisting improved relations with the US to appease the former while advocating closer ties with Europe to attract the latter.


[Image: Majles Speaker Ali Larijani and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad]