Election 2009: Iran's next president?

Farhang-e Ashti reports in Persian on the brewing speculation surrounding possible candidates for the 2009 presidential election.

Analysts have long suggested that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will not be a unity candidate for the hardline “principleist” camp. The principleists (osulgariyan) are so-called because they claim to be devoted to the “principles” of the Islamic Revolution. Their faction (which is composed of several political parties and cliques) arose in contradistinction to the reformists, who the former accuse of deviating from the founding ideals of the Islamic Republic.

Despite taking power from the marginalized reformists in the last presidential election, the principleists have found it difficult to unify behind Ahmadinejad. An early split within the hardliners emerged when former presidential candidate-turned-Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Expediency Council secretary Mohsen Rezai formed an alliance. When Ali Larijani (the former head nuclear negotiator) resigned from his position in Ahmadinejad’s cabinet, many speculated that he too had joined forces with Qalibaf and Rezai to oppose the president in the 2009 elections.

With Larijani’s election to Majlis (parliament) speaker, many suggest he’s moved into the front-runner’s position as the hardline candidate of choice to oppose Ahmadenejad. However, as the article suggests, Qalibaf is also expected to run and he has spent the last few years remaking himself into a hardworking and successful mayor of Iran’s most important city.

Qalibaf has been quietly working outside of the political spotlight developing a strong track-record of successful development projects in Tehran and building political bridges with Iranian and foreign leaders. Earlier this year he travelled to Iraq and met with Ayatollah Sistani, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and President Jalal Talabani. He also met with the mayor of Baghdad and pledged his (and Iran’s) commitment to rebuilding the Iraqi capital.

Qalibaf has positioned himself as a moderate who favors diplomacy and pragmatism over rhetoric and saber-rattling. He has a distinguished background in both the Basij and Revolutionary Guards (he retired as a Maj-Gen.), earned a Ph.D. in political science, and was Chief of Police for Tehran.

In the last election, he lost the key Basiji and war veteran vote to his rival Ahmadinejad, and he’ll have a difficult time courting that constituency this time if he chooses to market himself as a more moderate candidate. He’ll also have to expand his support beyond Tehran if he wants to be competitive. To this end, the article suggests Qalibaf--taking a page from Ahmadinejad’s book--is on the verge of a provincial tour.

Despite his current position as a moderate-conservative, Qalibaf is not a “moderate” in the true sense. The center of Iran’s political spectrum has moved far to the right under Ahmadinejad, so now, hardliners like Qalibaf and Rezai who find fault with Ahmadinejad are generally considered conservatives or pragmatists based on their dissension. Unlike the others, however, Qalibaf has done a successful job of at least sounding like a moderate in his interviews.

[Image: Tehran Mayor, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf]